Visa Retrogression

What It Means

Visa retrogression occurs when demand in a preference category or per-country allocation exceeds the Department of State's expected use of available immigrant visa numbers, forcing the monthly Visa Bulletin priority date cutoff to move backward rather than forward. Retrogression is most common in the second half of the fiscal year as DOS's Visa Office manages the 140,000 employment-based and 480,000 family-based annual caps established under INA sections 201 and 202. When a category retrogresses, applicants whose priority dates were current last month may no longer be able to file or receive a final decision on their I-485 or immigrant visa application until the date advances again. EB-2 India has historically been one of the most volatile categories, with final action dates retrogressing by multiple years on occasion and stagnating for long periods near 2012. EB-3 India, EB-2 and EB-3 China, F2A worldwide, and F4 Philippines have all seen significant retrogression. When a category becomes "unavailable" (marked with a "U" in the bulletin), no visas are being issued in that category at all for that fiscal year. Pending I-485 applications are not denied but are held until the priority date becomes current again. Cato Institute analyses have estimated EB-2 India wait times exceeding 80 years for new filings at current annual per-country usage rates. Retrogression is a major input into the backlog-trend component of the visatracker.org Pipeline Score because it signals when field offices will see I-485 inventory pile up without the ability to adjudicate.

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